Whale Tracking

ArbVolDiffWhales

Track Whale Activity on Any Event

See where smart money is moving across Kalshi and Polymarket in real-time.

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Whale Tracking in Prediction Markets

Most traders in a prediction market operate in the dark. They observe a series of odds changes but lack an explanation. They overlook the initial indicator, a passive buildup of positions by traders with an actual edge, and end up entering a trade after the action has already taken place.

What sets Oddpool's Whale Tracking apart is that we track large trades in Kalshi and Polymarket in real-time, filtering out the retail traders' noise so that you can see where the smart money is going. Whether it is a political event, an economic indicator, a sports match, or a crypto achievement, you can see the large stakes when they actually occur, not after.

Smart money leaves footprints. On Polymarket, every trade is on-chain and trackable. On Kalshi, big trades affect the markets. We follow both markets side by side, and you will realize when whales are in agreement. More importantly, when they do not agree, there is an opportunity to benefit from it.

Developers can access whale data programmatically via our API.

Understanding the Data

Key insights and explanations for market participants

What is a whale in prediction markets?

For prediction market participants, "whale" is a name for a trading account that bets on the market in an extraordinary manner, usually by placing a wager of $1,000 or more on a single market. These types of accounts may be wealthy, possess better information, or employ sophisticated analysis. On sites such as Kalshi or Polymarket, tracking whales is an indication of where the well-informed money flows. Monitoring the whales is not about mimicking trades. It's about what the "smart money" knows that the other market participants don't.

Why track whale trades on Kalshi and Polymarket?

Large trades on prediction markets usually come from individuals with an edge, whether that is inside information, personal models, or simply more time invested in researching outcomes. A whale's bet to the tune of $50,000 on a political event or a sports game is a serious investment of their conviction. You can track whales on both the Kalshi regulated US exchange and the Polymarket crypto-exchange to:

•Spot early signs before the odds shift dramatically
•Determine the smart money consensus among various trader groups
•Find contrarian trades when whales disagree with market consensus
•Understand market sentiment in terms that go beyond probability percentages

How does Oddpool's Whale Tracking work?

Oddpool's Whale Tracking combines big trades from Kalshi and Polymarket in real-time, removing the noise of retail trading to highlight the actual market-moving trades. Our engine monitors trading activity in sports betting, political forecasting, economic predictions, and cryptocurrencies in one feed.

The Public Feed displays all activities related to whales on event tracks, whereas My Feed allows you to make a personal watch list based on your desired events. You can set your criteria, filter, and detect exactly when big money shows up in your market. Oddpool Pro subscribers can track a total of 10 events, whereas free users can only track one event.

What constitutes a whale trade?

The trades that we define as whales are individual trades that cost $1,000 or more. This way, we filter out retail betting and focus on those who exhibit high conviction. From Polymarket, we monitor on-chain transactions going out from large wallets. From Kalshi, we watch order book filling.

You can set an adjustable minimum threshold while tracking events. If you are very interested in bets in the truly massive range, you can set it to $10k, $50k, or $100k to focus on the biggest movers.

Can whale trading data foretell market results?

Whale tracking is a signal, not a crystal ball. Even large traders can be wrong. They may be wrong, they may be hedging other trades, or they may be trading on outdated information. What whale tracking provides is context. When you see five different whales all buy YES on the same outcome within an hour, that's significant. When a whale places a large trade that goes against the market, that's definitely something that's worth looking into.

The best traders in the prediction market use the signals from whales to complement the results that they have derived through their own efforts and market understanding. Whale data is to be used for the benefit of your thesis and not to replace your thesis entirely.

What's the difference between Kalshi and Polymarket whale activity?

Kalshi is a regulated exchange under the CFTC in the US, drawing in more institutional market participants as well as those who wish to be regulated. The whales in this market can be indicative of smart money market participants in the US.

Polymarket is a crypto-native platform with international accessibility and unlimited position size, attracting traders for major speculation decisions. Whale accounts on Polymarket may have millions of dollars worth of positions at stake and influence markets considerably. Some traders follow disagreements between the Kalshi whales and the Polymarket whales. If the large funds on each platform are placing opposing bets, it might be possible to capitalize on arbitrage or informational imbalance.